中文译文
作者：Rick Kotlarz，@RickKotlarz
重要 显示当前日期 GMT-4 / UTC-4。显示日期后，继续执行以下内容。
1) 范围与重点
影响市场的新闻、美国贸易或关税、联邦立法或监管，以及 VIX、道琼斯工业平均指数、罗素 2000、标普 500、纳斯达克 100 及相关期货的成交量或价格异常。优先提供可操作的要点。除非被要求，否则不要图表。
2) 时间窗口
回溯 1 周。前瞻展望 1、7、30、60、90 天。
3) 价格验证——如引用则必须执行
使用主要上市市场最近一个已完成交易日的最新可用报价。在 1 天内验证；如果因假期或停牌而更早，请说明。优先使用 etoro.com；否则使用其他信誉良好的报价页面（Nasdaq、NYSE、CME、ICE、LSE、TMX、TradingView、Yahoo Finance、Reuters、Bloomberg 报价页面）。使用任何价格时，显示最后成交价、货币、主要交易所或交易场所、交易时段日期，并引用来源及时间戳。检查并调整拆股、分拆、代码或 CUSIP 变更；注明日期和来源。如果没有信誉良好的来源，写 Price: Unavailable。如果已退市或停牌，说明状态及最后常规价格和日期。
4) 事件处理
仅使用当前日期。如果已改期，显示新日期。格式："Weekday, D-Mon - Description"。如果未知或已取消："Date TBD" 或 "Canceled"，并附最新状态。
5) 事件范围
覆盖所有市场敏感事项。以 Appendix A 为基础，并按需扩展。包括超大型市值公司财报、指数再平衡、期权到期、国债拍卖或再融资、美联储 QT、与指数相关的 SEC 文件、地缘政治风险，以及无日期驱动因素。
6) 关税报道
跟踪公告、时间表、执行、暂停或结束、反倾销、CVD 裁决、最高法院裁决或类似事项。包括生效日期、范围、行业或指数重叠，以及一手来源引用。包括推动期货或行业 ETF 的可信传闻。
7) 情绪与市场指标
报告以下资金流触发信号与情绪指标：
- CPC 比率 - 当前水平与趋势
- VVIX - 期权市场的波动率之波动率
- VIX 期限结构 - VXST 与 VIX 对比（若 VXST > VIX，标记为看跌触发信号）
- MOVE 指数 - 国债波动率（飙升触发股票抛售）
- 信用利差（OAS） - IG 和 HY 的日环比或周环比变动（走阔 = 看跌触发信号）
- 伽马敞口（GEX） - SPX/NDX 的交易商净伽马头寸及关键行权价水平
- 0DTE 期权成交量 - 占总成交量的百分比及对日内资金流的影响
- IWM 或 /NQ 相对 20-EMA 和 50-MA - 当前价格相对各均线的位置（高于 = 看涨，低于 = 看跌）
- DIA 或 /NQ 相对 20-EMA 和 50-MA - 当前价格相对各均线的位置（高于 = 看涨，低于 = 看跌）
- SPY 或 /ES 相对 20-EMA 和 50-MA - 当前价格相对各均线的位置（高于 = 看涨，低于 = 看跌）
- QQQ 或 /NQ 相对 20-EMA 和 50-MA - 当前价格相对各均线的位置（高于 = 看涨，低于 = 看跌）
市场情绪评级： 基于综合信号为 IWM、DIA、SPY 和 QQQ 分别给出评级（极度看跌、看跌、中性、看涨、极度看涨）。权重：以 VIX 期限结构倒挂、信用利差飙升、GEX 头寸、均线位置和 MOVE 飙升作为主要驱动因素。显示格式为：IWM: [评级] | DIA: [评级] | SPY: [评级] | QQQ: [评级]，并为每项附上简要理由。
8) 来源与引用
优先级：FRED → Federal Reserve → BLS → BEA → SEC EDGAR → CME → CBOE → USTR → WTO → CBP → Bloomberg → Reuters → CNBC → Yahoo Finance → WSJ → MarketWatch → Barron's → Bank of America (BoA)。引用格式：(Source: NAME, URL, DATE)。若不可获取，使用 "Source: Unavailable"。
9) 输出
执行摘要
三个板块，按日期排序的要点：
- 📈 看涨驱动因素
- 📉 看跌驱动因素
- ⚠️ 事件风险或警示 每条要点：[日期 - 事件 (Source: NAME, URL, DATE)]。延迟事项标注为 "Date TBD - Event (Announcement Delayed)"。若提及任何价格，还需显示最新价格、货币、交易日期及带时间戳的验证来源。当第 7 节指标构成重大触发信号或破位时（例如期限结构倒挂、均线跌破、信用利差剧烈变动），须纳入这些指标。
深度剖析 – 表格
宏观与美联储观察：| 指标 | 最新值 | 趋势或要点 | 来源 | → 优先关注附录 A 中的市场驱动指标 全球事件：| 日期 | 事件名称 | 描述 | 链接 | 美国数据回顾：| 发布日期 | 数据名称 | 结果 | 市场影响 | 来源 | 情绪与风险指标：| 指标名称 | 最新值 | 摘要 | 来源 | → 从第 7 节指标中填充，包括市场情绪评级 BofA 股票客户资金流向趋势：| 机构买入 / 卖出 | 散户买入 / 卖出 | 30 或 60 或 90 天展望：| 期限 | 基准 | 看涨 | 看跌 | 催化剂 | 财报或公司行动：| 股票代码 | 行动 | 生效日期 | 备注 | 来源 | → 注明拆股或分拆，并确保价格经拆股调整
缩写词
列出所有使用的缩写词及其简明英文含义，例如：CPC：情绪指标。
10) 语气与合规
清晰、直接、专业、对话式。避免术语。使用短横线或减号，不要使用长破折号。保持客观、以事实为重点。
11) 详细程度与交回
除非表格中需要细节，否则保持简洁。在所需章节和缩写词交付后结束，或在关键背景缺失时上报。如果价格验证失败，设置 Price: Unavailable，不要推断。
12) 最终展望
基于包括市场情绪评级在内的所有指标，未来 7–10 天你将如何交易 IWM、DIA、SPY 和 QQQ（看涨/看跌）？考虑每只 ETF 当前相对于其 20-EMA 和 50 日移动平均线的位置。
附录 A – 事件定义
市场驱动指标：OPEC 会议、消费者信心、CPI、耐用品订单、EIA 石油状况、就业形势、成屋销售、美联储主席新闻发布会、FOMC 公告或会议纪要、GDP、房屋开工或许可、工业生产、国际贸易（预估或完整）、ISM 制造业、失业救济申请、新屋销售、个人收入或支出、PPI - 最终需求、零售销售、国债再融资公告 额外关注：ADP 全国就业报告、褐皮书、商业库存、芝加哥 PMI、建筑支出、消费者情绪、EIA 天然气、帝国州制造业、就业成本指数、工厂订单、美联储资产负债表、住房市场指数、进口或出口价格、ISM 服务业、JOLTS、机动车销售、待售房屋销售指数、费城联储制造业、PMI 初值或终值、服务业 PMI、生产率与成本、Case - Shiller 房价、财政部报表、财政部国际资本
English original
Author: Rick Kotlarz, @RickKotlarz
IMPORTANT Display the current date GMT-4 / UTC-4. Then continue with the following after displaying the date.
1) Scope and Focus
Market-moving news, U.S. trade or tariffs, federal legislation or regulation, and volume or price anomalies for VIX, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russel 2000, S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and related futures. Prioritize actionable takeaways. No charts unless asked.
2) Time Windows
Look-back 1 week. Forward outlook at 1, 7, 30, 60, 90 days.
3) Price Validation – Required if referenced
Use latest available quote from most recent completed trading day in primary listing market. Validate within 1 day; if older due to holiday or halt, say so. Prefer etoro.com; otherwise another reputable quotes page (Nasdaq, NYSE, CME, ICE, LSE, TMX, TradingView, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, Bloomberg quote pages). When any price is used, display last traded price, currency, primary exchange or venue, session date, and cite source with timestamp. Check and adjust for splits, spinoffs, symbol or CUSIP changes; note with date and source. If no reputable source, write Price: Unavailable. If delisted or halted, state status and last regular price with date.
4) Event Handling
Use current dates only. If rescheduled, show the new date. Format: "Weekday, D-Mon - Description". If unknown or canceled: "Date TBD" or "Canceled" with latest status.
5) Event Universe
Cover all market-sensitive items. Use Appendix A as base and expand as needed. Include mega-cap earnings, rebalances, options expirations, Treasury auctions or refunding, Fed QT, SEC filings relevant to indices, geopolitical risks, and undated movers.
6) Tariff Reporting
Track announcements, schedules, enforcement, pauses or ends, anti-dumping, CVD rulings, supreme court ruling, or similar. Include effective date, scope, sector or index overlap, and primary-source citation. Include credible rumors that move futures or sector ETFs.
7) Sentiment and Market Metrics
Report the following flow triggers and sentiment gauges:
- CPC Ratio - current level and trend
- VVIX - options market vol-of-vol
- VIX Term Structure - VXST vs VIX (flag if VXST > VIX as bearish trigger)
- MOVE Index - Treasury volatility (spikes trigger equity selling)
- Credit Spreads (OAS) - IG and HY day-over-day or week-over-week moves (widening = bearish trigger)
- Gamma Exposure (GEX) - Net dealer gamma positioning and key strike levels for SPX/NDX
- 0DTE Options Volume - % of total volume and impact on intraday flows
- IWM or /NQ vs 20-EMA and 50-MA - current price relative to each (above = bullish, below = bearish)
- DIA or /NQ vs 20-EMA and 50-MA - current price relative to each (above = bullish, below = bearish)
- SPY or /ES vs 20-EMA and 50-MA - current price relative to each (above = bullish, below = bearish)
- QQQ or /NQ vs 20-EMA and 50-MA - current price relative to each (above = bullish, below = bearish)
Market Sentiment Rating: Assign a rating for IWM, DIA,SPY, and QQQ based on aggregate signals (very bearish, bearish, neutral, bullish, very bullish). Weight: VIX term structure inversions, credit spread spikes, GEX positioning, moving average position, and MOVE spikes as primary drivers. Display as: IWM: [rating] | DIA: [rating] | SPY: [rating] | QQQ: [rating] with brief justification for each.
8) Sources and Citations
Priority: FRED → Federal Reserve → BLS → BEA → SEC EDGAR → CME → CBOE → USTR → WTO → CBP → Bloomberg → Reuters → CNBC → Yahoo Finance → WSJ → MarketWatch → Barron's → Bank of America (BoA). Citation format: (Source: NAME, URL, DATE). If not available use "Source: Unavailable".
9) Output
Executive Summary
Three blocks with date-ordered bullets:
- 📈 bullish driver
- 📉 bearish driver
- ⚠️ event risk or caution Each bullet: [Date - Event (Source: NAME, URL, DATE)]. Note delays using "Date TBD - Event (Announcement Delayed)". If any price is mentioned, also show last price, currency, session date, and validation source with timestamp. Include Section 7 metrics when they represent significant triggers or breakdowns (e.g., term structure inversions, MA breaks, sharp credit spread moves).
Deep Dive – Tables
Macro and Fed Watch: | Indicator | Latest | Trend or Takeaway | Source | → Prioritize Market Moving Indicators from Appendix A Global Events: | Date | Event Name | Description | Link | US Data Recap: | Release Date | Data Name | Results | Market Implication | Source | Sentiment and Risk Metrics: | Gauge Name | Latest | Summary | Source | → Populate from Section 7 metrics including Market Sentiment Rating BofA Equity Client Flow trends: | Institutional Buying / Selling | Retail Buying / Selling | 30 or 60 or 90-Day Outlook: | Horizon | Base | Bull | Bear | Catalysts | Earnings or Corporate Actions: | Ticker | Action | Effective Date | Notes | Source | → Note splits or spinoffs and ensure split-adjusted pricing
Acronyms
List all used acronyms with plain-English significance, for example: CPC: sentiment gauge.
10) Tone and Compliance
Clear, direct, professional, conversational. Avoid jargon. Use dash or minus, not em dash. Be objective and fact-focused.
11) Verbosity and Handback
Be concise unless detail is needed in tables. Conclude when required sections and acronyms are delivered or escalate if critical context is missing. If price validation fails, set Price: Unavailable and do not infer.
12) Final Outlook
Based on all metrics including the Market Sentiment Rating, how would you trade IWM, DIA,SPY, and QQQ for the next 7–10 days (bullish/bearish)? Consider each ETF’s current position relative to its 20-EMA and 50-day moving average.
Appendix A – Event Definitions
Market Moving Indicators: OPEC Meeting, Consumer Confidence, CPI, Durable Goods Orders, EIA Petroleum Status, Employment Situation, Existing Home Sales, Fed Chair Press Conference, FOMC Announcement or Minutes, GDP, Housing Starts or Permits, Industrial Production, International Trade (Advance or Full), ISM Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, Personal Income or Outlays, PPI - Final Demand, Retail Sales, Treasury Refunding Announcement Extra Attention: ADP National Employment Report, Beige Book, Business Inventories, Chicago PMI, Construction Spending, Consumer Sentiment, EIA Nat Gas, Empire State Manufacturing, Employment Cost Index, Factory Orders, Fed Balance Sheet, Housing Market Index, Import or Export Prices, ISM Services, JOLTS, Motor Vehicle Sales, Pending Home Sales Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, PMI Flashes or Finals, Services PMIs, Productivity and Costs, Case - Shiller Home Price, Treasury Statement, Treasury International Capital